Rochdale 2-2 Oxford City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.79
2-3 Goals
36%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.81
6+ Goals
12%
7.68
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.79 — our 27% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.51
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
22.3
X/1
20%
3.47
X/2
6%
19.5
X/X
8%
7.78
2/1
12%
22.3
2/2
6%
15.2
2/X
8%
22.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
72%
-11.5pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.1pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+11.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-11.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.7pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rochdale EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Oxford City EU Bookmakers 14%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/2.80
-6% / -53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -30%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
495 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 172 · 61%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rochdale
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Oxford City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 3
12.08.2023 Oxford City Oxford City 0-1 HT 0-0 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rochdale
2-2
AWAY Oxford City
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Rochdale vs Oxford City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rochdale and Oxford City couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Rochdale at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rochdale had 62% of the ball to Oxford City's 38%, shots finished 10-5.

What was the final score of Rochdale vs Oxford City?

Rochdale 2-2 Oxford City in the England - National League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rochdale vs Oxford City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rochdale win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Rochdale 61%, draw 22%, Oxford City 17%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rochdale) ✗ BTTS No
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