Baden 1-1 Vaduz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 9 Mar 2024

Baden
1-1 HT 1-0
Vaduz
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.29
Over 2.5
46%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.49
No
51%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
7.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.75 — our 29% vs market 16.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
25%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
40%
+14.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
60%
-14.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.6pp
51%
BTTS No
37%
+13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baden EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Vaduz EU Bookmakers 48%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.03/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.78
-10% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / +37%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
20.0 Crosses 16.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baden
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Vaduz
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.03 xG 2.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
312 Passes 413
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 34
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 1-2 HT 1-1 Baden Baden İSV2
13.08.2023 Baden Baden 2-3 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baden
1-1
AWAY Vaduz
1.13 xG 1.22
32% Ball Possession 68%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
171 Passes 504
59% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Baden vs Vaduz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baden and Vaduz couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Vaduz at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Baden had 32% of the ball to Vaduz's 68%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.13 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Baden and 2.00 for Vaduz.

What was the final score of Baden vs Vaduz?

Baden 1-1 Vaduz in the Switzerland Challenge League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baden vs Vaduz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vaduz win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Baden 32%, draw 27%, Vaduz 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vaduz), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vaduz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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