St. Gallen 2-3 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 9 Mar 2024

St. Gallen
2-3 HT 2-1
Lugano
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2023/2024

St. Gallen vs Lugano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.21
Over 2.5
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
27%
2.88
6+ Goals
12%
8.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.64
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
14%
4.78
X/2
10%
7.45
X/X
9%
5.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.3
2/2
10%
4.9
2/X
10%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.0pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Gallen v Lugano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +13%
1.65/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.38
+6% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
17.9 Crosses 16.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

St. Gallen vs Lugano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Gallen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lugano
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.42 xG 1.59
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
237 Passes 348
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.01.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-4 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
29.07.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
26.04.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-2 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.04.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 1-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
16.10.2022 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
28.08.2022 Lugano Lugano 2-3 HT 1-2 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV

St. Gallen 2-3 Lugano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Gallen
2-3
AWAY Lugano
1.40 xG 1.62
31% Ball Possession 69%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
160 Passes 492
67% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 35
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Gallen vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano nicked a narrow win over St. Gallen 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was St. Gallen at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, St. Gallen had 31% of the ball to Lugano's 69%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 1.40 to 1.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for St. Gallen and 1.83 for Lugano.

What was the final score of St. Gallen vs Lugano?

St. Gallen 2-3 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Gallen vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Gallen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split St. Gallen 46%, draw 28%, Lugano 27%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Gallen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Gallen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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