Western Sydney W. II 4-1 NWS Spirit — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.59
Over 2.5
53%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.43
No
48%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
65%
-12.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
66%
-14.1pp
48%
BTTS No
34%
+14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western Sydney W. II EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY NWS Spirit EU Bookmakers 33%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.78/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.86
-11% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
380 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.3 Crosses 16.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western Sydney W. II
0W-1D-1L
AWAY NWS Spirit
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.12 xG 2.27
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
382 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
10 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2023 Western Sydney W. II Western Sydney W. II 3-3 HT 2-0 NWS Spirit NWS Spirit AVNPL
13.05.2023 NWS Spirit NWS Spirit 1-0 HT 1-0 Western Sydney W. II Western Sydney W. II AVNPL
POST-MATCH Western Sydney W. II vs NWS Spirit
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western Sydney W. II cruised past NWS Spirit 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Western Sydney W. II as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, NWS Spirit led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Western Sydney W. II and 2.00 for NWS Spirit.

What was the final score of Western Sydney W. II vs NWS Spirit?

Western Sydney W. II 4-1 NWS Spirit in the Australia - National Premier League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western Sydney W. II vs NWS Spirit?

Before kick-off our model rated a Western Sydney W. II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Western Sydney W. II 42%, draw 24%, NWS Spirit 34%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western Sydney W. II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Western Sydney W. II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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