PFC Beroe 2-0 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.34
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
47%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.16
No
64%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
30%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
16%
+10.1pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.4pp
47%
Away Win
61%
-14.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.2pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.8pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 66%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.75/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.53
+4% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +53%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
217 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PFC Beroe
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Cherno More Varna
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-0 HT 1-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
23.06.2017 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 2-2 HT 0-2 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PFC Beroe
2-0
AWAY Cherno More Varna
32% Ball Possession 68%
7 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PFC Beroe vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PFC Beroe got the better of Cherno More Varna 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Cherno More Varna at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PFC Beroe had 32% of the ball to Cherno More Varna's 68%, shots finished 7-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for PFC Beroe and 2.00 for Cherno More Varna.

What was the final score of PFC Beroe vs Cherno More Varna?

PFC Beroe 2-0 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PFC Beroe vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split PFC Beroe 26%, draw 27%, Cherno More Varna 47%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cherno More Varna) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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