JaPS 4-1 Mikkeli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykköscup, 9 Mar 2024

JaPS
4-1 HT 2-0
Mikkeli
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
27%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.53
No
51%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.51
2-3 Goals
33%
1.9
4-5 Goals
31%
2.91
6+ Goals
9%
8.41
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.51 — our 27% vs market 17.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-2.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.8pp
51%
BTTS No
39%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME JaPS EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mikkeli EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
330 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME JaPS
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Mikkeli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.07.2023 Mikkeli Mikkeli 0-2 HT 0-2 JaPS JaPS FİN2
06.05.2023 JaPS JaPS 1-3 HT 0-1 Mikkeli Mikkeli FİN2
03.09.2022 Mikkeli Mikkeli 2-0 HT 1-0 JaPS JaPS FİN2
22.06.2022 JaPS JaPS 1-4 HT 0-3 Mikkeli Mikkeli FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME JaPS
4-1
AWAY Mikkeli
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH JaPS vs Mikkeli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

JaPS ran out comfortable winners over Mikkeli 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had JaPS as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, JaPS had 55% of the ball to Mikkeli's 45%, shots finished 13-9.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mikkeli led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for JaPS and 2.25 for Mikkeli.

What was the final score of JaPS vs Mikkeli?

JaPS 4-1 Mikkeli in the Finland - Ykköscup on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for JaPS vs Mikkeli?

Before kick-off our model rated a JaPS win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split JaPS 46%, draw 27%, Mikkeli 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (JaPS) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (JaPS) ✗ BTTS No
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