TPS Turku 3-2 KaPa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykköscup, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.94
2-3 Goals
35%
1.95
4-5 Goals
26%
2.78
6+ Goals
15%
7.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
61%
-11.7pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.2pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY KaPa EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
450 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TPS Turku
1W-0D-1L
AWAY KaPa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
19.08.2023 KaPa KaPa 2-0 HT 1-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
08.06.2023 TPS Turku TPS Turku 4-1 HT 1-0 KaPa KaPa FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TPS Turku
3-2
AWAY KaPa
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH TPS Turku vs KaPa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TPS Turku squeezed past KaPa 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had TPS Turku as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, TPS Turku had 56% of the ball to KaPa's 44%, shots finished 13-5.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for TPS Turku and 1.50 for KaPa.

What was the final score of TPS Turku vs KaPa?

TPS Turku 3-2 KaPa in the Finland - Ykköscup on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TPS Turku vs KaPa?

Before kick-off our model rated a TPS Turku win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split TPS Turku 49%, draw 23%, KaPa 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (TPS Turku), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (TPS Turku) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FINYK More Finland - Ykköscup
9 Mar 2024
16:45 JaPS vs Mikkeli Analysis →
17:00 SalPa Salo vs SJK Akatemia Analysis →