FC Juarez 1-1 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+5.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-5.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.3pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 51%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.10/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.13
+3% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.8
16.0 Crosses 16.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Toluca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.96 xG 1.82
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
312 Passes 379
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.07.2023 Toluca Toluca 2-4 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
23.04.2023 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
09.10.2022 Toluca Toluca 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
30.07.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
20.04.2022 Toluca Toluca 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
24.07.2021 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-3 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
1-1
AWAY Toluca
0.54 xG 0.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
289 Passes 439
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez and Toluca couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 43% of the ball to Toluca's 57%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.54 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Juarez and 1.67 for Toluca.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Toluca?

FC Juarez 1-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 33%, draw 26%, Toluca 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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