Necaxa 3-1 Atletico San Luis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.8
Over 2.5
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.76
6+ Goals
11%
16.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.76 — our 24% vs market 21.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+6.9pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.3pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 39%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.20/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.74
+4% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -30%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
260 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 82%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
20.9 Crosses 20.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.94 xG 1.09
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
236 Passes 329
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.10.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 4-0 HT 2-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
07.01.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 2-3 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
08.08.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-2 HT 1-2 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
16.04.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 4-2 HT 3-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
13.08.2021 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-2 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
16.01.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
3-1
AWAY Atletico San Luis
2.24 xG 1.18
32% Ball Possession 68%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
208 Passes 506
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Atletico San Luis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa beat Atletico San Luis 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Necaxa had 32% of the ball to Atletico San Luis's 68%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 2.24 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Necaxa and 1.67 for Atletico San Luis.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Atletico San Luis?

Necaxa 3-1 Atletico San Luis in the Mexico - Primera on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Atletico San Luis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 43%, draw 24%, Atletico San Luis 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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