Puebla 2-2 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 9 Mar 2024

Puebla
2-2 HT 1-2
Atlas
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Puebla vs Atlas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
37%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.47 — our 26% vs market 23.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
12%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+5.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-4.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.4pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Atlas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -13%
1.17/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.40
-7% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
334 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
18.0 Crosses 17.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

Puebla vs Atlas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atlas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.88 xG 1.40
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
249 Passes 295
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.09.2023 Atlas Atlas 2-3 HT 1-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
18.03.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-4 HT 0-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
21.08.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-1 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
12.02.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
29.09.2021 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
16.05.2021 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK

Puebla 2-2 Atlas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
2-2
AWAY Atlas
2.00 xG 0.72
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 10
317 Passes 446
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla and Atlas couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Puebla had 43% of the ball to Atlas's 57%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.00 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Puebla and 1.33 for Atlas.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Atlas?

Puebla 2-2 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puebla win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Puebla 38%, draw 25%, Atlas 37%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Puebla) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Puebla) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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