Melgar 3-1 ADT — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 9 Mar 2024

Melgar
3-1 HT 1-0
ADT
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY ADT EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.77/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.12
-6% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +7%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 72%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
22.3 Crosses 17.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
2W-2D-0L
AWAY ADT
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
1.79 xG 0.18
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
334 Passes 163
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
28 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.06.2023 Melgar Melgar 4-0 HT 2-0 ADT ADT PER
26.03.2023 ADT ADT 0-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
05.10.2022 ADT ADT 1-1 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
13.05.2022 Melgar Melgar 3-0 HT 2-0 ADT ADT PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
3-1
AWAY ADT
1.33 xG 0.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
224 Passes 241
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melgar vs ADT
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar got the better of ADT 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Melgar had 49% of the ball to ADT's 51%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.33 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Melgar and 0.25 for ADT.

What was the final score of Melgar vs ADT?

Melgar 3-1 ADT in the Peru - Premier League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs ADT?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Melgar 51%, draw 25%, ADT 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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