Freiburg II 3-2 Homburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 9 Mar 2025

Freiburg II
3-2 HT 1-2
Homburg
📅09/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Regional League – 2024/2025

Freiburg II vs Homburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
26%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.3pp
26%
Away Win
32%
-6.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg II v Homburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Homburg EU Bookmakers 36%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +2%
2.08/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.08/1.98
+32% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
326 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Freiburg II vs Homburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg II
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Homburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.08.2024 Homburg Homburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
29.05.2021 Freiburg II Freiburg II 0-1 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
17.02.2021 Homburg Homburg 1-3 HT 1-2 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
22.02.2020 Homburg Homburg 3-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
22.08.2015 Freiburg II Freiburg II 0-2 HT 0-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
05.04.2015 Freiburg II Freiburg II 2-4 HT 2-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Freiburg II vs Homburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg II edged past Homburg 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Freiburg II as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Homburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Freiburg II and 2.17 for Homburg.

What was the final score of Freiburg II vs Homburg?

Freiburg II 3-2 Homburg in the Germany - Regional League on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg II vs Homburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Freiburg II 44%, draw 30%, Homburg 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg II) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg II) ✗ Under 2.5
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