Manta vs El Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Manta v El Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Manta vs El Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
El Nacional
EKV2
1-0
HT 0-0
Manta
EKV2
0-1
HT 0-1
El Nacional
EKV2
1-0
HT 1-0
Manta
EKV2
1-2
HT 0-1
Manta
EKV1
1-0
HT 1-0
El Nacional
EKV1
Manta 4-3 El Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Manta squeezed past El Nacional 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Manta found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Manta had 44% of the ball to El Nacional's 56%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 2.61 to 2.90.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Manta and 0.83 for El Nacional.
What was the final score of Manta vs El Nacional?
Manta 4-3 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Manta vs El Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Manta win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Manta 36%, draw 28%, El Nacional 36%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.