Pachuca 1-1 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.81
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.29
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
2.75
6+ Goals
10%
7.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.29 — our 31% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
71%
-18.2pp
25%
Draw
18%
+6.9pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
1.89/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.74
-5% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
386 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
21.7 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.86 xG 1.39
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
329 Passes 278
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 3-0 HT 3-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
28.04.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
01.07.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.02.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-3 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
19.07.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
25.02.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 3-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
1-1
AWAY Mazatlan
1.12 xG 0.38
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
464 Passes 175
88% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 5
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca and Mazatlan shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Pachuca at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Pachuca had 68% of the ball to Mazatlan's 32%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.12 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pachuca and 1.50 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Mazatlan?

Pachuca 1-1 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 53%, draw 25%, Mazatlan 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Pachuca), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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