Mazatlan 3-0 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.06
6+ Goals
10%
19.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.06 — our 24% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+3.6pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 43%
+5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.26/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.18
+7% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +0%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
240 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
16.7 Crosses 17.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Pachuca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.12 xG 2.03
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
235 Passes 339
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
01.07.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.02.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-3 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
19.07.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
25.02.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 3-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
31.07.2021 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-1 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
3-0
AWAY Pachuca
3.18 xG 0.42
64% Ball Possession 36%
26 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 0
470 Passes 229
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
35 Box Touches 6
28 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan swept aside Pachuca 3-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Mazatlan made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 64% of the ball to Pachuca's 36%, shots finished 26-4, expected goals 3.18 to 0.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mazatlan and 1.67 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Pachuca?

Mazatlan 3-0 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mazatlan win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 36%, draw 28%, Pachuca 36%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ BTTS Yes
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