Melgar 1-0 Sporting Cristal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
27%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-1.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 28%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.37/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.50
-7% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
339 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 75%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
22.2 Crosses 15.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sporting Cristal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.19 xG 0.94
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
297 Passes 312
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.08.2024 Melgar Melgar 2-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
14.03.2024 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-2 HT 0-2 Melgar Melgar PER
23.07.2023 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
18.02.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-0 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
06.11.2022 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 0-2 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
02.11.2022 Melgar Melgar 2-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
1-0
AWAY Sporting Cristal
0.98 xG 2.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
304 Passes 310
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar edged past Sporting Cristal 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Melgar had 50% of the ball to Sporting Cristal's 50%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.98 to 2.17 — on chances, Sporting Cristal could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Melgar and 0.50 for Sporting Cristal.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

Melgar 1-0 Sporting Cristal in the Peru - Premier League on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Melgar 50%, draw 24%, Sporting Cristal 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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