Polonia Warszawa 2-2 Kotwica Kolobrzeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.32
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
22%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
2.91
6+ Goals
12%
9.07
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 25% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
71%
-12.9pp
20%
Draw
18%
+1.8pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.6pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Kotwica Kolobrzeg EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -66% / -12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonia Warszawa
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Kotwica Kolobrzeg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.08.2024 Kotwica Kolobrzeg Kotwica Kolobrzeg 1-0 HT 1-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
22.04.2023 Kotwica Kolobrzeg Kotwica Kolobrzeg 1-2 HT 0-2 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL2
18.09.2022 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 1-1 HT 1-1 Kotwica Kolobrzeg Kotwica Kolobrzeg POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Warszawa
2-2
AWAY Kotwica Kolobrzeg
65% Ball Possession 35%
27 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Polonia Warszawa vs Kotwica Kolobrzeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Warszawa and Kotwica Kolobrzeg couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Polonia Warszawa at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Polonia Warszawa had 65% of the ball to Kotwica Kolobrzeg's 35%, shots finished 27-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Polonia Warszawa and 1.00 for Kotwica Kolobrzeg.

What was the final score of Polonia Warszawa vs Kotwica Kolobrzeg?

Polonia Warszawa 2-2 Kotwica Kolobrzeg in the Poland - 1st Division on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Warszawa vs Kotwica Kolobrzeg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Polonia Warszawa 59%, draw 20%, Kotwica Kolobrzeg 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Polonia Warszawa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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