Botafogo 2-0 Carabobo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.18
Draw
19%
5.28
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.53
No
59%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 26% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.33
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
32.0
X/1
20%
3.56
X/2
5%
31.0
X/X
10%
8.93
2/1
11%
28.5
2/2
6%
31.5
2/X
5%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
79%
-13.2pp
20%
Draw
15%
+4.5pp
15%
Away Win
6%
+8.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
36%
+5.7pp
59%
BTTS No
64%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Carabobo EU Bookmakers 9%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
2.49/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.27/1.92
+67% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -27%
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
430 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 71%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.8
15.3 Crosses 12.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
2-0
AWAY Carabobo
1.67 xG 0.24
71% Ball Possession 29%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
541 Passes 173
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
35 Box Touches 7
36 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Carabobo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo got the better of Carabobo 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Botafogo had 71% of the ball to Carabobo's 29%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.67 to 0.24.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Carabobo?

Botafogo 2-0 Carabobo in the Copa Libertadores on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Carabobo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 66%, draw 20%, Carabobo 15%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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