Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Guadalajara v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Guadalajara vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Guadalajara
MEK
1-2
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
0-0
HT 0-0
Guadalajara
MEK
1-1
HT 0-0
Guadalajara
MEK
2-0
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
Guadalajara 1-0 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Guadalajara squeezed past Toluca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Guadalajara made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Guadalajara had 51% of the ball to Toluca's 49%, shots finished 3-9, expected goals 0.09 to 0.35.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Guadalajara and 1.00 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Toluca?
Guadalajara 1-0 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 09/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 39%, draw 26%, Toluca 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.