Guadalajara 3-2 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 31 Jan 2024

Guadalajara
3-2 HT 2-2
Toluca
📅31/01/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.29
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.55
6+ Goals
10%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 31% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.91
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
17%
4.86
X/2
10%
6.8
X/X
10%
4.77
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
16%
4.68
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guadalajara v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
1.32/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.51
-10% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 77%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
18.6 Crosses 15.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Guadalajara vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Toluca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.92 xG 0.85
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
272 Passes 405
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.10.2023 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
22.01.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
05.09.2022 Toluca Toluca 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.04.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
18.10.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
17.01.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK

Guadalajara 3-2 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
3-2
AWAY Toluca
39% Ball Possession 61%
17 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
245 Passes 433
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara edged past Toluca 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Guadalajara had 39% of the ball to Toluca's 61%, shots finished 17-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Guadalajara and 0.83 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Toluca?

Guadalajara 3-2 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 43%, draw 24%, Toluca 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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