Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Guadalajara v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Guadalajara vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Guadalajara 3-2 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Guadalajara found just enough to beat Toluca 3-2. Level at 2-2 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half. With 5 goals, entertainment was never the problem.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 50% for over 2.5, 54% on both teams scoring.
The match data tells the story: Guadalajara had 39% of the ball to Toluca's 61%, shots finished 17-18.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Guadalajara and 0.83 for Toluca.
Guadalajara vs Toluca Result & Final Score
Guadalajara 3 - 2 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 45%, draw 27%, Toluca 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.