Mazatlan 2-2 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 31 Jan 2024

Mazatlan
2-2 HT 2-1
Leon
📅31/01/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Mazatlan vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.44 — our 26% vs market 23.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.04
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X EV+ ✓
12%
12.9
X/1
12%
6.05
X/2
10%
5.17
X/X
7%
4.87
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
21%
3.24
2/X
8%
12.8
Value flag · 1/X at 12.9 — our 12% vs market 4.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
38%
Away Win
43%
-5.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.3pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mazatlan v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 48%
+6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.33/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.04
+3% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -18%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
17.1 Crosses 15.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Mazatlan vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Leon
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.22 xG 1.65
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
235 Passes 380
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 0-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
25.03.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
14.08.2022 Leon Leon 0-3 HT 0-3 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
21.03.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 0-2 Leon Leon MEK
15.08.2021 Leon Leon 3-0 HT 1-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
24.04.2021 Mazatlan Mazatlan 4-3 HT 1-2 Leon Leon MEK

Mazatlan 2-2 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
2-2
AWAY Leon
0.55 xG 1.79
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
347 Passes 294
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan and Leon shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 53% of the ball to Leon's 47%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.55 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mazatlan and 2.00 for Leon.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Leon?

Mazatlan 2-2 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 36%, draw 27%, Leon 38%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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