Milan 3-1 Bologna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 9 May 2025

Milan
3-1 HT 0-0
Bologna
📅09/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Milan vs Bologna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.12
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.86
Over
41%
1.87
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.69
No
54%
2.05
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
32%
3.26
2-3
38%
1.79
4-5
21%
3.48
6+
9%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.26 — our 32% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.12
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
9%
5.2
X/2
14%
6.92
X/X
18%
4.56
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
12%
4.88
2/X
6%
13.0
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Milan v Bologna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Bologna The Market 33%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.42/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.08
-8% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
359 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
16.8 Crosses 14.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Milan vs Bologna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bologna
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.72 xG 1.15
49% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
345 Passes 380
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.02.2025 Bologna Bologna 2-1 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
27.01.2024 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
21.08.2023 Bologna Bologna 0-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
15.04.2023 Bologna Bologna 1-1 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
27.08.2022 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
04.04.2022 Milan Milan 0-0 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA

Milan 3-1 Bologna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
3-1
AWAY Bologna
1.68 xG 0.63
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
368 Passes 410
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 16
7 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Milan vs Bologna
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Milan put daylight between themselves and Bologna 3-1. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.

From a near-even 36% / 31% / 33% read, it was Milan who turned the coin-flip their way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

The match data tells the story: Bologna saw more of the ball, 53% to 47%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.68 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.33 a game for Milan against 0.83 for Bologna.

Milan vs Bologna Result & Final Score

Milan 3-1 Bologna in the Italy - Serie A on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Milan vs Bologna Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Milan 36%, draw 31%, Bologna 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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