Ponferradina 3-1 Real Aviles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 9 May 2026

📅09/05/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.89
Draw
21%
3.28
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.75
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
24%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
17.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
49%
+2.7pp
21%
Draw
27%
-5.9pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.8pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponferradina EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Aviles EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.47/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.90
+1% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +86% / -33%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.0 Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponferradina
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Real Aviles
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
31.08.2025 Real Aviles Real Aviles 0-3 HT 0-3 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponferradina
3-1
AWAY Real Aviles
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ponferradina vs Real Aviles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponferradina beat Real Aviles 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ponferradina as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Ponferradina had 50% of the ball to Real Aviles's 50%, shots finished 12-12.

What was the final score of Ponferradina vs Real Aviles?

Ponferradina 3-1 Real Aviles in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponferradina vs Real Aviles?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponferradina win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Ponferradina 52%, draw 21%, Real Aviles 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ponferradina), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ponferradina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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