Cerezo Osaka 3-2 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 9 May 2026

📅09/05/2026 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.69
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
55%
-4.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.6pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 24%
-8% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +26%
1.45/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.62
-22% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +80% / +10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
399 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
20.9 Crosses 16.1
0.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2W-0D-3L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.61 xG 0.36
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
387 Passes 346
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.02.2026 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
19.08.2018 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
05.05.2018 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-1 HT 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP
14.11.2015 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP2
17.05.2015 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3-2
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
3.54 xG 2.68
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
440 Passes 178
84% Pass Accuracy 65%
26 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka edged past V-Varen Nagasaki 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cerezo Osaka as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 66% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 34%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 3.54 to 2.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.20 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Cerezo Osaka 3-2 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J1 League on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 51%, draw 22%, V-Varen Nagasaki 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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