V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Feb 2026

V-Varen Nagasaki
1-0 HT 1-0
Cerezo Osaka
📅28/02/2026 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2026

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
49%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
13%
8.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
32%
-2.9pp
21%
Draw
27%
-5.2pp
49%
Away Win
41%
+8.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

V-Varen Nagasaki v Cerezo Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 45%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
1.45/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.39
+12% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
372 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 80%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
11.7 Crosses 17.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.9

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.36 xG 1.61
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
346 Passes 387
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.08.2018 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
05.05.2018 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-1 HT 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP
14.11.2015 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP2
17.05.2015 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Cerezo Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-0
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 49% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 51%, shots finished 18-17.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.50 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 29%, draw 21%, Cerezo Osaka 49%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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