Gamba Osaka 2-2 Shimizu S-Pulse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.62
6+ Goals
10%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 30% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
1.79/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.21
+15% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
400 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 77%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
17.4 Crosses 17.6
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.97 xG 1.21
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
417 Passes 351
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.06.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
08.03.2025 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
14.08.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-2 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
10.04.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
13.08.2021 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
18.04.2021 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
2-2
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka and Shimizu S-Pulse shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Gamba Osaka at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 53% of the ball to Shimizu S-Pulse's 47%, shots finished 10-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gamba Osaka had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gamba Osaka and 0.50 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Gamba Osaka 2-2 Shimizu S-Pulse in the Japan - J1 League on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 42%, draw 29%, Shimizu S-Pulse 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gamba Osaka), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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