Lexington 3-1 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 9 May 2026

Lexington
3-1 HT 2-0
Monterey Bay
📅09/05/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2026

Lexington vs Monterey Bay Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.49
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
15%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.49
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.09
6+ Goals
9%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 26% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
63%
+3.0pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.0pp
15%
Away Win
16%
-1.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.4pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lexington v Monterey Bay — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lexington EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 20%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -14%
2.10/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.61
-10% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
12.6 Crosses 16.2
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Lexington vs Monterey Bay Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lexington
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Monterey Bay
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.62 xG 1.63
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
326 Passes 284
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.06.2025 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 2-1 HT 1-1 Lexington Lexington USLP
20.04.2025 Lexington Lexington 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP

Lexington 3-1 Monterey Bay — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lexington
3-1
AWAY Monterey Bay
2.40 xG 1.37
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
357 Passes 414
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lexington vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lexington saw off Monterey Bay 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lexington as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Lexington had 47% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 53%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.40 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Monterey Bay led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lexington and 1.00 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of Lexington vs Monterey Bay?

Lexington 3-1 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lexington vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lexington win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Lexington 66%, draw 19%, Monterey Bay 15%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lexington) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lexington) ✗ BTTS No
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