Monterey Bay 2-1 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 8 Jun 2025

📅08/06/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.3
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 29% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-20% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
305 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.2 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Lexington
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.79 xG 2.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
341 Passes 325
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2025 Lexington Lexington 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
2-1
AWAY Lexington
2.47 xG 0.53
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 12
227 Passes 327
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Monterey Bay vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterey Bay edged past Lexington 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Monterey Bay as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 43% of the ball to Lexington's 57%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 2.47 to 0.53 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monterey Bay's control.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs Lexington?

Monterey Bay 2-1 Lexington in the USL Championship on 08/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterey Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 41%, draw 26%, Lexington 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterey Bay), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterey Bay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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