Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Louisville City v Tampa Bay Rowdies — Team-Based Signals
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-3
HT 1-3
Tampa Bay Rowdies
USLP
2-1
HT 1-0
Louisville City
USLP
1-0
HT 0-0
Tampa Bay Rowdies
USLP
Louisville City 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Actual Match Statistics
Louisville City squeezed past Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1.
As we said in the preview, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Louisville City had 46% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 54%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.80 to 0.96.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Louisville City and 1.67 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.
What was the final score of Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Louisville City 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 08/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 53%, draw 25%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.