Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-2 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.96
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.13
6+ Goals
12%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
29%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
40%
+3.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.5pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 37%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -14%
1.42/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.50
-1% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
345 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 73%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
14.3 Crosses 18.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Louisville City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.62 xG 0.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
331 Passes 364
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.10.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 2-3 HT 1-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
10.09.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
06.11.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
14.08.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
06.06.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-0 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
21.11.2021 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-2 HT 0-2 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
3-2
AWAY Louisville City
2.99 xG 1.86
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
291 Passes 209
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies nicked a narrow win over Louisville City 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 55% of the ball to Louisville City's 45%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 2.99 to 1.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.17 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-2 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 44%, draw 24%, Louisville City 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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