Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Tampa Bay Rowdies v Louisville City — Team-Based Signals
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-2 Louisville City — Actual Match Statistics
Louisville City squeezed past Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 on the road. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.
The match data tells the story: possession split 54% to 46% in Tampa Bay Rowdies's favour, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.08 to 1.18.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Tampa Bay Rowdies against 1.50 for Louisville City.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City Result & Final Score
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1 - 2 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 28%, draw 28%, Louisville City 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.