Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-2 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
-0.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.3pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 48%
-50% / -50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
0.97/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.99
-100% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +37%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
22.0 Crosses 21.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Louisville City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.62 xG 0.95
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
320 Passes 344
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.10.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
16.06.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-2 HT 2-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
15.10.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 2-3 HT 1-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
10.09.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
06.11.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
14.08.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1-2
AWAY Louisville City
1.08 xG 1.18
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 10
303 Passes 225
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City squeezed past Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 54% of the ball to Louisville City's 46%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.08 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.50 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-2 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 30%, draw 29%, Louisville City 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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