Guangzhou Evergrande 1-3 Liaoning Shenyang — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 9 Jun 2024

📅09/06/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.4
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.49
6+ Goals
9%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 31% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-4.3pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.0pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Liaoning Shenyang EU Bookmakers 22%
-37% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -15%
1.02/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/0.97
-53% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
374 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 73%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
25.8 Crosses 13.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Liaoning Shenyang
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
29.07.2023 Liaoning Shenyang Liaoning Shenyang 3-1 HT 2-0 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
1-3
AWAY Liaoning Shenyang
0.59 xG 1.48
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
390 Passes 193
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Guangzhou Evergrande vs Liaoning Shenyang
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liaoning Shenyang got the better of Guangzhou Evergrande 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Guangzhou Evergrande at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guangzhou Evergrande had 63% of the ball to Liaoning Shenyang's 37%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 0.59 to 1.48.

What was the final score of Guangzhou Evergrande vs Liaoning Shenyang?

Guangzhou Evergrande 1-3 Liaoning Shenyang in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 09/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guangzhou Evergrande vs Liaoning Shenyang?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guangzhou Evergrande win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Guangzhou Evergrande 53%, draw 23%, Liaoning Shenyang 24%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guangzhou Evergrande) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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