AZ Alkmaar 3-2 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 9 Jul 2025

📅09/07/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.86
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.37
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 27% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
54%
+0.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.3pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 24%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
0.44/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.52
-76% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +15%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
406 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.07.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 1-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki HAZ
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar nicked a narrow win over Aris Saloniki 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Aris Saloniki?

AZ Alkmaar 3-2 Aris Saloniki in the Friendlies on 09/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 55%, draw 23%, Aris Saloniki 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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