CSKA Sofia 3-2 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 9 Jul 2026

📅09/07/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.27
Draw
17%
5.28
Away
12%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.33
Over 2.5
54%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.53
2-3 Goals
35%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
2.66
6+ Goals
10%
7.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
3%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
75%
-3.8pp
17%
Draw
16%
+0.9pp
12%
Away Win
9%
+2.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSKA Sofia EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 11%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
2.51/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/3.22
+10% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +84% / -32%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
458 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSKA Sofia
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Derry City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
06.08.2009 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 0-0 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia AVL
30.07.2009 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 1-0 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSKA Sofia
3-2
AWAY Derry City
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CSKA Sofia vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Sofia edged past Derry City 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CSKA Sofia as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, shots finished 17-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, CSKA Sofia had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for CSKA Sofia and 0.50 for Derry City.

What was the final score of CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?

CSKA Sofia 3-2 Derry City in the UEFA Europa League on 09/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split CSKA Sofia 71%, draw 17%, Derry City 12%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Sofia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CSKA Sofia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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