Etoile Carouge 0-2 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 9 Aug 2024

Etoile Carouge
0-2 HT 0-2
Thun
📅09/08/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2024/2025

Etoile Carouge vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.79
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 29% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-3.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Etoile Carouge v Thun — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 43%
+48% / +48% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
2.19/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.17
+91% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
12.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
3.0 Crosses 18.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Etoile Carouge 0-2 Thun — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Etoile Carouge
0-2
AWAY Thun
0.44 xG 1.34
65% Ball Possession 35%
9 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
486 Passes 228
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Etoile Carouge vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun got the better of Etoile Carouge 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Thun found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Etoile Carouge had 65% of the ball to Thun's 35%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.44 to 1.34.

What was the final score of Etoile Carouge vs Thun?

Etoile Carouge 0-2 Thun in the Switzerland Challenge League on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Etoile Carouge vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated a Etoile Carouge win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Etoile Carouge 37%, draw 27%, Thun 36%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Etoile Carouge), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Etoile Carouge) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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