Jahn Regensburg 1-0 Ulm 1846 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.75
Over 2.5
52%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.95
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.96
6+ Goals
12%
18.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.96 — our 24% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.58
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
15%
5.2
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
5.7
X/X
14%
4.28
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
13%
4.07
2/X
5%
13.4
Value flag · X/2 at 5.7 — our 18% vs market 13.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
53%
-5.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
47%
+5.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.7pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jahn Regensburg EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-5% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
276 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.4 Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jahn Regensburg
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Ulm 1846
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 1-0 HT 0-0 Jahn Regensburg Jahn Regensburg AL3
12.11.2023 Jahn Regensburg Jahn Regensburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jahn Regensburg
1-0
AWAY Ulm 1846
0.62 xG 0.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
219 Passes 269
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
10 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jahn Regensburg vs Ulm 1846
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jahn Regensburg nicked a narrow win over Ulm 1846 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Jahn Regensburg found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Jahn Regensburg had 46% of the ball to Ulm 1846's 54%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.62 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Jahn Regensburg and 0.50 for Ulm 1846.

What was the final score of Jahn Regensburg vs Ulm 1846?

Jahn Regensburg 1-0 Ulm 1846 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jahn Regensburg vs Ulm 1846?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ulm 1846 win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Jahn Regensburg 35%, draw 28%, Ulm 1846 37%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ulm 1846) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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