Karabağ 3-0 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.18
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.63
Over 2.5
56%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
18%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
80%
-17.0pp
20%
Draw
14%
+6.1pp
17%
Away Win
6%
+11.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
34%
+9.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
66%
-9.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +20%
2.74/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/2.45
+32% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -9%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
408 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Kapaz
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
29.03.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 1-6 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
27.01.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 1-2 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
04.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 7-1 HT 5-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
27.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 1-1 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
09.04.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 1-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
04.02.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ cruised past Kapaz 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Karabağ and 1.00 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Kapaz?

Karabağ 3-0 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 63%, draw 20%, Kapaz 17%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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