Tukums II 4-1 Valmiera II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
17%
4.19
Away Pick
60%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.59
Over
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.55
No
52%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
37%
4-5
31%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
25%
X/X
4%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Valmiera II win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
23%
Home Win
19%
+3.7pp
17%
Draw
21%
-3.5pp
60%
Away Win
60%
-0.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.1pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tukums II The Market 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Valmiera II The Market 64%
-36% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
1.00/2.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.99
+17% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -50%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 501 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tukums II
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Valmiera II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
13.04.2024 Valmiera II Valmiera II 3-1 HT 1-1 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
04.08.2023 Valmiera II Valmiera II 1-0 HT 0-0 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
07.04.2023 Tukums II Tukums II 1-0 HT 1-0 Valmiera II Valmiera II LET1
POST-MATCH Tukums II vs Valmiera II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tukums II ran out comfortable winners over Valmiera II 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Valmiera II carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Valmiera II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tukums II and 1.33 for Valmiera II.

What was the final score of Tukums II vs Valmiera II?

Tukums II 4-1 Valmiera II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tukums II vs Valmiera II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valmiera II win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Tukums II 23%, draw 17%, Valmiera II 60%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Valmiera II), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valmiera II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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