Valmiera II 3-1 Tukums II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
29%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.59
Over 2.5
48%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.43
No
49%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.2pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.3pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-3.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
35%
+17.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
65%
-17.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
66%
-15.1pp
49%
BTTS No
34%
+15.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valmiera II EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Tukums II EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/2.16
-53% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valmiera II
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Tukums II
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
04.08.2023 Valmiera II Valmiera II 1-0 HT 0-0 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
07.04.2023 Tukums II Tukums II 1-0 HT 1-0 Valmiera II Valmiera II LET1
POST-MATCH Valmiera II vs Tukums II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valmiera II got the better of Tukums II 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Valmiera II as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Valmiera II and 0.50 for Tukums II.

What was the final score of Valmiera II vs Tukums II?

Valmiera II 3-1 Tukums II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valmiera II vs Tukums II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valmiera II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Valmiera II 42%, draw 29%, Tukums II 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valmiera II), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valmiera II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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