NEC Nijmegen 5-0 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
56%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
20%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.38
Over
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
25%
4.8
2-3
40%
1.92
4-5
23%
2.7
6+
12%
6.98
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.8 — our 25% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.12
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
20%
4.51
X/2
8%
9.7
X/X
12%
6.19
2/1
11%
19.85
2/2
8%
6.85
2/X
5%
14.85
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME NEC Nijmegen The Market 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior The Market 25%
Weak Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Average Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Bad
1.68 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.19
1.00 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.92
Average Attackvs comparable teams Strong
Average Defensevs comparable teams Weak
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
25.3 Crosses 15.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Excelsior
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.61 xG 1.14
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
395 Passes 311
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.05.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 0-3 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
13.08.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-4 HT 2-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
19.02.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 0-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
08.10.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
09.04.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 2-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
08.01.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-2 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
5-0
AWAY Excelsior
2.48 xG 1.03
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
376 Passes 200
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
32 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

NEC Nijmegen cruised past Excelsior 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 53%, coin-flips both. If anything the market was more convinced: the over-2.5 price stood at 1.56, roughly 64%.

By the numbers, possession split 62% to 38% in NEC Nijmegen's favour, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.48 to 1.03.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.33 a game for NEC Nijmegen against 1.50 for Excelsior.

NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Result & Final Score

NEC Nijmegen 5-0 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 56%, draw 24%, Excelsior 20%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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