Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Los Angeles FC edged past Toluca 1-0 away from home in the Concacaf League Cup on 9 Aug 2026. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 58% and both teams to score was favoured at 60%.
On the day, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 0.66 to 0.72.
Across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours are even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Los Angeles FC.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Los Angeles FC?
Toluca 0-1 Los Angeles FC in the Concacaf League Cup on 09/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Los Angeles FC?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Toluca 45%, draw 20%, Los Angeles FC 35%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.