Marsilya vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction, Probabilities & Odds — Friendlies, 9 Aug 2026

Marsilya
vs
Athletic Bilbao
📅09/08/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
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Friendlies – 2026

Marsilya vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
45%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
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Both Teams to Score
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Total Goals
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Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
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Marsilya v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals

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iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
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Team-Based Signals — members only
The why behind every prediction: how each side performs against the bookmaker, expected goals, attack & defence versus the league, and the on-pitch signals below.
  • Team Performance vs Market
  • Expected Goals — scored / conceded
  • Attack / Defense vs League Average
  • Possession · Total Shots · Shots on Target
  • Corners · Passes · Box Touches · Crosses · Cards
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Marsilya vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.09 xG 1.36
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
392 Passes 268
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.03.2018 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-2 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya AVL
08.03.2018 Marsilya Marsilya 3-1 HT 2-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao AVL
25.02.2016 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya AVL
18.02.2016 Marsilya Marsilya 0-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao AVL
COMMENT Marsilya vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Match Comment — summary & quick answers

Both teams have scored in 4 of Marsilya's last 5 home league games, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 4 of Athletic Bilbao's last 5 away league games.

Across their last 4 meetings in our records, Marsilya have the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Marsilya and 1.00 for Athletic Bilbao.

When do Marsilya and Athletic Bilbao play?

Marsilya play Athletic Bilbao in the Friendlies on 09/08/2026, kick-off 18:30 (Istanbul · GMT+3).

Who is predicted to win Marsilya vs Athletic Bilbao?

Our model's prediction for Marsilya vs Athletic Bilbao is an Athletic Bilbao win at about 45% probability, priced 2.35 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is Marsilya 31%, draw 24%, Athletic Bilbao 45%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.

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