America Mineiro 3-0 Guarani FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 9 Sep 2024

📅09/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
63%
1.44
Over 2.5
37%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.4
No
62%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
16%
6.38
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.6pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
66%
-2.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
34%
+2.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
38%
+0.6pp
62%
BTTS No
62%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +12%
1.31/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.14
-2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
24.3 Crosses 17.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Guarani FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.59 xG 0.85
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
306 Passes 370
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.05.2024 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-2 HT 1-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
03.01.2021 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-1 HT 0-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
03.10.2020 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
23.11.2019 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-1 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
25.08.2019 America Mineiro America Mineiro 3-2 HT 1-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
04.11.2017 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-1 HT 0-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
3-0
AWAY Guarani FC
0.92 xG 0.38
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 11
320 Passes 526
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 9
11 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Guarani FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro cruised past Guarani FC 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had America Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (62%) landed while under 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, America Mineiro had 39% of the ball to Guarani FC's 61%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.92 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, America Mineiro had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for America Mineiro and 0.50 for Guarani FC.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Guarani FC?

America Mineiro 3-0 Guarani FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 09/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Guarani FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 46%, draw 28%, Guarani FC 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
9 Sep 2024
00:30 Coritiba vs Novorizontino Analysis →