Coritiba 2-2 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 9 Sep 2024

📅09/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
73%
1.36
Over 2.5
27%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.44
No
67%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
1.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
11%
7.35
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 73%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.5pp
32%
Draw
32%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.3pp
73%
Under 2.5
70%
+3.3pp
27%
Over 2.5
30%
-3.3pp
33%
BTTS Yes
37%
-3.9pp
67%
BTTS No
63%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
1.27/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.05
-8% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +24%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 73%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
21.2 Crosses 16.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coritiba
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Novorizontino
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.84 xG 0.68
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
243 Passes 272
69% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 Novorizontino Novorizontino 0-0 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
2-2
AWAY Novorizontino
2.05 xG 0.68
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 9
11 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
331 Passes 355
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba and Novorizontino couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 32% / 27% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (73%), no to both teams scoring (67%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Coritiba had 48% of the ball to Novorizontino's 52%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 2.05 to 0.68.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Novorizontino?

Coritiba 2-2 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 09/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 40%, draw 32%, Novorizontino 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Coritiba) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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