Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 9 Sep 2024

📅09/09/2024 · 🕒01:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.96
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.51
Over 2.5
38%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
-9.0pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.3pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.7pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 27%
+10% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.48/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.91
+20% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +57%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
311 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
19.6 Crosses 15.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.52 xG 2.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
191 Passes 347
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 31
7 Crosses 44
3 Yellow Cards 4
28.02.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 1-2 HT 1-2 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
15.03.2014 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1-1
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.15 xG 0.74
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
231 Passes 335
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 6
22 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera and Fortaleza CEIF couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 32% / 30% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 44% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 56%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.15 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 0.50 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 09/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 38%, draw 32%, Fortaleza CEIF 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alianza Petrolera), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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