Fortaleza CEIF 1-2 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 28 Feb 2024

📅28/02/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.5pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.9pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+1.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.3pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 26%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.11/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.29
+7% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +35%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
17.1 Crosses 12.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
273 Passes 223
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
15.03.2014 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
1-2
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
2.00 xG 0.52
68% Ball Possession 32%
22 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 4
421 Passes 159
87% Pass Accuracy 66%
31 Box Touches 14
44 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fortaleza CEIF vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera edged past Fortaleza CEIF 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Fortaleza CEIF at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza CEIF had 68% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 32%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 2.00 to 0.52 — on chances, Fortaleza CEIF could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Fortaleza CEIF vs Alianza Petrolera?

Fortaleza CEIF 1-2 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza CEIF vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza CEIF win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza CEIF 46%, draw 30%, Alianza Petrolera 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fortaleza CEIF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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