Millonarios 0-2 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 28 Feb 2024

📅28/02/2024 · 🕒04:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.59
Over 2.5
36%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.0pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.4pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.7pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.5pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millonarios EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.21/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.09
-7% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +0%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 74%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
19.8 Crosses 13.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millonarios
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Once Caldas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.01 xG 1.05
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
344 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.08.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 2-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
27.02.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
11.09.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
19.03.2022 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
02.08.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
01.02.2021 Millonarios Millonarios 4-3 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millonarios
0-2
AWAY Once Caldas
2.11 xG 1.62
66% Ball Possession 34%
26 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 4
402 Passes 173
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
42 Box Touches 11
38 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Millonarios vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas saw off Millonarios 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Millonarios at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Millonarios had 66% of the ball to Once Caldas's 34%, shots finished 26-8, expected goals 2.11 to 1.62 — on chances, Millonarios could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Millonarios and 1.17 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Millonarios vs Once Caldas?

Millonarios 0-2 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millonarios vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millonarios win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Millonarios 48%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 22%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Millonarios) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Millonarios) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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