The New Saints 1-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 9 Oct 2024

The New Saints
1-2 HT 1-1
Caernarfon Town
📅09/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2024/2025

The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.18
Draw
14%
6.26
Away
15%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.17
Over 2.5
67%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
8.12
2-3 Goals
36%
2.32
4-5 Goals
25%
2.38
6+ Goals
21%
4.17
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
4%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
79%
-8.7pp
14%
Draw
12%
+1.8pp
15%
Away Win
8%
+7.1pp
33%
Under 2.5
28%
+5.2pp
67%
Over 2.5
72%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

The New Saints v Caernarfon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME The New Saints EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 11%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
3.53/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/2.84
+29% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / -12%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
451 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME The New Saints
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
3.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
70% Ball Possession 30%
24 Total Shots 4
13 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.04.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 7-1 HT 4-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
23.02.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-8 HT 1-4 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
26.12.2023 The New Saints The New Saints 2-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
26.09.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-3 HT 1-0 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
03.01.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
11.11.2022 The New Saints The New Saints 2-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALWK

The New Saints 1-2 Caernarfon Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME The New Saints
1-2
AWAY Caernarfon Town
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town edged past The New Saints 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. The New Saints carried 71% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, The New Saints had 60% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 40%, shots finished 23-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, The New Saints had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.83 goals for The New Saints and 0.83 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?

The New Saints 1-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 09/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a The New Saints win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split The New Saints 71%, draw 14%, Caernarfon Town 15%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (The New Saints) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (The New Saints) ✓ Over 2.5
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