The New Saints 7-1 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.16
Draw
15%
7.78
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
4.0
Over 2.5
59%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
9.82
2-3 Goals
37%
2.52
4-5 Goals
24%
2.32
6+ Goals
17%
3.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
3%
X/X
4%
2/1
15%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
82%
-10.6pp
15%
Draw
10%
+4.8pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+5.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
22%
+19.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
78%
-19.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME The New Saints EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 9%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
3.55/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/3.32
+24% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +69% / -13%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
476 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME The New Saints
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
71% Ball Possession 29%
25 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-8 HT 1-4 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
26.12.2023 The New Saints The New Saints 2-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
26.09.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-3 HT 1-0 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
03.01.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
11.11.2022 The New Saints The New Saints 2-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALWK
25.10.2022 The New Saints The New Saints 3-0 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME The New Saints
7-1
AWAY Caernarfon Town
71% Ball Possession 29%
29 Total Shots 7
18 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

The New Saints ran out comfortable winners over Caernarfon Town 7-1. Half-time: 4-0. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had The New Saints as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 7-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, The New Saints had 71% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 29%, shots finished 29-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, The New Saints had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for The New Saints and 0.67 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?

The New Saints 7-1 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a The New Saints win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split The New Saints 72%, draw 15%, Caernarfon Town 13%. The final score 7-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (The New Saints), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (The New Saints) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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