Bala Town 1-1 Newtown — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 5 Apr 2024

Bala Town
1-1 HT 1-1
Newtown
📅05/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2023/2024

Bala Town vs Newtown Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.23
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 31% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bala Town v Newtown — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bala Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Newtown EU Bookmakers 33%
+17% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.42/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.34
-2% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Bala Town vs Newtown Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bala Town
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Newtown
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.02.2024 Newtown Newtown 1-5 HT 1-4 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
30.12.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
30.09.2023 Newtown Newtown 1-0 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
05.05.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 2-4 HT 1-2 Newtown Newtown GAL
07.04.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
25.02.2023 Newtown Newtown 3-2 HT 0-1 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
POST-MATCH Bala Town vs Newtown
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bala Town and Newtown couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bala Town at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newtown led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bala Town and 2.00 for Newtown.

What was the final score of Bala Town vs Newtown?

Bala Town 1-1 Newtown in the Wales - Premier League on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bala Town vs Newtown?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bala Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bala Town 43%, draw 26%, Newtown 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bala Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bala Town) ✓ Under 2.5
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